3
Scotch Mist
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 85
Woodbine · Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 3f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 33/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 11% | -0.15 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |