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5

Appleblossomwhite

4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 3 · OR 62

Deauville · Prix Du Pevele Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 94y

#1

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

97%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m5f219y Std 135 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 63 par27/126OR 633 @ Deauville 23/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 62 · 1m4f94y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 62 par4 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 09/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 62 · 1m1f207y Std 120 · beat its mark09/02/2026 · OR 62 par9/024OR 624 @ Marseille 16/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 7f100y Std 120 · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 62 par3 @ Deauville 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS4/0734 @ Le Touquet 26/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f96y Sft 120 · beat its mark26/07/2026 · OR 62 par3 @ Deauville 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f97y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS11/0833 @ Dieppe 24/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m3f204y Ver 130 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Saint-Cloud 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS7/093projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Saint-Cloud31st0th+1
2026-08-24Dieppe32nd1st+1
2026-08-11Deauville35th4th+1
2026-07-26Le Touquet41st1st0
2026-07-04Deauville34th3rd+1
2026-02-16Marseille45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1216/0211/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength71%

Delivery trend +6.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/202511th11/142%0%-0.42
23/01/202612th33/10%0%0.00
09/02/20267th33/10%0%0.00
16/02/20265th50/10%50%+0.50
04/07/20264th22/10%79%+0.79
26/07/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
11/08/20265th6/168%64%-0.05
24/08/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
07/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24