13:16 · Stratford

Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)

2m 70yGood to FirmClass 44YO plusTURF6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Top Pick1
OR 118
5/2
Square D'alboni silks

Recommended Freight Ltd & Dan Skelton

4yo Gelding · 11-11

Zarak - Polonia Lady (Australia)

Harry Skelton80%2/4D Skelton60%
371127
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Useful 3-time winner on Flat. Progressive since opening his hurdle account at this track (1¼m), only denied a hat-trick by a fairly useful one at Worcester (2½m) in August. Better than he was able to show in a valuable novice final there last time. Can resume winning ways back in calmer waters.

Class Advantage

14/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/0130/01 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a30/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a16/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/07 · mark par19/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below19/08 · mark par25/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/09 · mark par25/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 17%Dist: 2m 70y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 80%14/01Pos 7 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 7 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%30/06Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Expected: 98%Pos 1 · SP 4/11 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 89%19/08Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 7 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 57%25/09
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-283/100
2
Market Fav2
13/8
Arcturus Flame silks

Ambrose Racing Club Ltd

4yo Gelding · 11-6

Too Darn Hot - Kitty Love (Kitten's Joy)

J J Burke60%1/1James Owen
1
6.0Going 8.0
Tongue strap

Fairly useful Flat performer. Didn't have much to beat when easing to hurdling debut success at Plumpton (2m) last time, jumping much better than his sole rival on paper. Surely better to come given his profile/connections and rates a very credible danger to Square D'Alboni.

Class Advantage

1/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/05 · mark par1/0514/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above14/06 · mark par1/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par14/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par29/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par20/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 17%Dist: 2m 70y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 78%1/05Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 56%1/07Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 2 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 67%Pos 5 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 50%29/08Pos 1 · SP 2/7 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 2/7 | Actual: 100%20/09
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-552/100
5
3
15/8
Red Metal silks

Mr Philip Leo Moore

4yo Gelding · 10-13

Goliath Du Berlais - Dame Wal (Astronomer Royal)

Brendan Powell60%0/1Miss H C Knight
1P2
9.0

Impressive debut bumper winner at Hereford who came within a whisker of defying his penalty in a similar event here in March (both soft ground). Can have a say if translating his fairly useful form to hurdles at the first attempt (under contrasting conditions).

Class Advantage

20/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/129/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/03projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to FirmDist: 2m 70y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 1 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 100%20/12Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 83%9/03
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%4-471/100
4
5
33/1
Prince Vinny silks

Royal Arch Racing Prince Vinny

4yo Gelding · 10-13

Highland Reel - Maire Banrigh (King's Theatre)

Ben Jones60%Miss E C Lavelle
686
2.0

Bred to need time/distance and shaped in kind on both bumper runs last winter. Offered something to work on sent hurdling on final start for Harriet Dickin, beaten 15 lengths at Exeter (2m) in March. Probably a handicap project for capable new yard, unless the market suggests otherwise.

Class Advantage

6/11 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/1120/11 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/1122/03 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a22/03projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to FirmDist: 2m 70y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 29%6/11Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 36%20/11Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 38%22/03
Projected finish4th of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%4-477/100
3
4
20/1
Drumstick silks

Caveat Emptor Partnership

5yo Gelding · 11-0

Land Force - Humdrum (Dr Fong)

Jack Hogan60%0/1F O'Brien
8
3.0

Given a considerate introduction on hurdling/stable debut at Newton Abbot this time last year. Since broke his duck with a fair performance on return at Windsor (not in same form either Flat start since) and likely a longer-term project back in this sphere.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par24/0719/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/08 · mark par29/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a4/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par6/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below6/08 · mark par21/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/09 · mark par21/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 50%Dist: 2m 70y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%24/07Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 36%29/09Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%6/08Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 33%21/09
Projected finish5th of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%3-664/100
6
6
33/1
Lady Of The Isles silks

Mr T G Williams

4yo Filly · 10-6

Make Believe - Lady Of The Court (Camelot)

James Best60%S-J Davies
No form2.0

Modest Flat maiden who was seemingly held back by her temperament in 1m handicaps this summer. Hardly looks an obvious type sent hurdling by new yard.

Class Advantage

22/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/0914/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par4/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below4/05 · mark par12/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above12/05 · mark par29/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par25/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength13%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Good to Firm · 67%Dist: 2m 70y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 25%22/09Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 79%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%4/05Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 8 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 30%29/05Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%25/07
Projected finish6th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%6-690/100