2
Marchemalo
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix Du Pevele Claiming Stakes · 1m 4f 94y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Fontainebleau | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-05-18 | Marseille-borely | 2 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-16 | Salon-De-Provence | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 09/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 23/03/2026 | 14th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 22/06/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 23/07/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |