Charismatic Chick
4yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#3
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Amiens | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 23/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 20/08/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 13/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/09/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |