Coolmeen Royal

7yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 12

Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y

Rank

Odds

13/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength49%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.4

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.6

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-17	Dieppe	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-22	Deauville	3	14th	13th	+1	1.0
2026-08-12	Vichy	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-13	Dieppe	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-12	Saint-Cloud	3	11th	10th	+1	1.0
2026-05-31	Chantilly	3	7th	6th	+1	4.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 2-10 · tight 56/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength58%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/04/2026	8th	9/1	53%	53%	+0.01
27/04/2026	10th	8/1	58%	10%	-0.48
12/05/2026	14th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.02
31/05/2026	7th	18/1	5%	50%	+0.45
12/06/2026	11th	25/1	0%	17%	+0.17
13/07/2026	9th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
12/08/2026	5th	12/1	37%	56%	+0.19
22/08/2026	14th	20/1	0%	13%	+0.13
17/09/2026	5th	15/2	61%	60%	-0.01