Hematite
4yo Filly · 8-1 · Draw 4
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6885.0 /10 (raw 7.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 34392 | 13th | 41279th | −34388 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 05/06/2026 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 11th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 12/07/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 13th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 19/09/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 69% | +0.14 |