7
Michelangelo
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 3
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength41%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Vichy | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 56/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/04/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 17/05/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 07/06/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 19/06/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 55% | -0.22 |
| 10/09/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 19/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 62% | -0.10 |