11
Nurture
5yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 13
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | La Teste De Buch | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Dax | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Mont De Marsan | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Fontainebleau | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +12.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/2025 | 10th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 06/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 04/09/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 17/10/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 23/08/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 05/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |