9
Papateou
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 19/03/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/04/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 9% | +0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 12/06/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 17/09/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |