1
Sweet As
6yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 6
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#1
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Deauville | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Les Sables | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 90/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 25/08/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/09/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 30% | -0.52 |
| 09/09/2026 | 12th | 4/1 | 79% | 8% | -0.71 |
| 17/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |