2
Wild Moor
4yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 9
Deauville · Prix De L'avesnois Handicap · 6f 101y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 14/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 58% | -0.18 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 93% | +0.35 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 73% | -0.11 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |