10
Bacchilide
7yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 3
Deauville · Prix Au-dela Des Pistes Handicap · 6f 101y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Chantilly | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 9-12 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 58% | -0.21 |
| 23/06/2026 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.13 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.47 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 19/09/2026 | 11th | 11/1 | 42% | 23% | -0.19 |