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14

Favory Chop

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 8

Deauville · Prix Au-dela Des Pistes Handicap · 6f 101y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Deauville 06/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f101y Std 1276/11C5C0 @ Deauville 03/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132C0 @ Deauville 18/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR - · 6f101y Std 12518/12C?3 @ Deauville 09/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 6f101y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Deauville 30/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f101y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS30/0133 @ Chantilly 19/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 6f101y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Chantilly 26/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS26/0334 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 11/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1383 @ ParisLongchamp 24/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS24/053projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24ParisLongchamp310th9th+1
2026-04-11Bordeaux Le Bouscat48th8th0
2026-03-26Chantilly34th3rd+1
2026-02-19Chantilly32nd1st+1
2026-01-30Deauville310th9th+1
2026-01-09Deauville31st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/119/0126/0324/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-12 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
03/12/20253rd18/15%85%+0.79
18/12/20253rd18/15%87%+0.81
09/01/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
30/01/202610th6/168%18%-0.50
19/02/20262nd22/10%93%+0.93
26/03/20264th20/10%79%+0.79
11/04/20268th3/184%46%-0.38
24/05/202610th16/116%18%+0.02