6
Asterale
5yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 1
Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 8.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Vichy | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-21 | Marseille | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Marseille | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Deauville | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 83/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 04/09/2025 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 30/09/2025 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 22/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 18/11/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 03/12/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 21/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 79% | +0.05 |