7
Breathe On
5yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y
#13
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 8.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chantilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength19%
Delivery trend -0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/08/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/10/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 27/12/2025 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 26/07/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/09/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |