13
Caly Rosay
9yo Mare · 8-8 · Draw 4
Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y
#12
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 7.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Craon | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Deauville | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-09-12 | Le Mans | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-01 | Chantilly | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2024 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 57% | +0.52 |
| 07/08/2025 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 24/08/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 73% | +0.15 |
| 01/09/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 12/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 85% | +0.69 |
| 22/10/2025 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 8% | -0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 27/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |