IvyArcIvyArc
8

Gin Gembre

9yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2

Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength10%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chantilly 12/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Std 12712/0344 @ Chantilly 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Std 1204 @ Deauville 08/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1208/044C0 @ ParisLongchamp 23/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1124 @ Compiegne 20/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 71 · 7f209y Hvy 124 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 71 par20/054OR 714 @ Compiegne 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 7f209y GS 1204 @ Saint-Cloud 05/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1215/0744 @ Dieppe 24/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 5f102y Ver 112C0 @ Chantilly 23/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Gd 11723/09C?projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Chantilly?8th8th0
2026-08-24Dieppe411th11th0
2026-07-05Saint-Cloud411th11th0
2026-06-09Compiegne46th6th0
2026-05-20Compiegne44th4th0
2026-04-23ParisLongchamp?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0323/045/0723/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20263rd7/282%85%+0.03
26/03/20265th6/168%69%+0.01
08/04/20265th17/255%64%+0.08
23/04/20268th25/10%46%+0.46
20/05/20264th8/158%77%+0.19
09/06/20266th11/142%67%+0.25
05/07/202611th10/147%33%-0.14
24/08/202611th22/10%9%+0.09
23/09/20268th16/116%46%+0.30