10
Lagoa Santa
7yo Mare · 8-8 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Craon | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Senonnes-Pouance | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Pornichet | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Deauville | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 5-13 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 90% | +0.19 |
| 07/01/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 27/02/2026 | 14th | 8/1 | 58% | 7% | -0.51 |
| 13/03/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 36% | -0.06 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 82% | +0.19 |
| 27/09/2026 | 11th | 7/2 | 82% | 9% | -0.72 |