9
Stranger
9yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 11
Deauville · Prix De La Sambre Handicap · 6f 101y
#7
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Craon | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Moulins | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nantes | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength59%
Delivery trend +1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 27/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 27/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 64% | +0.11 |