User Amistoso

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · Draw 7 · OR 78

Deauville · Prix Des Weppes Claiming Stakes · 1m 1f 97y

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▬

Strength48%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C3.7

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-28	Compiegne	4	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-07-02	ParisLongchamp	4	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-06-05	Nancy	4	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-03-20	Le Croise-Laroche	4	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-02-18	Cagnes-sur-Mer	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-02-04	Cagnes-sur-Mer	3	4th	3rd	+1	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 9-10 · tight 86/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -9.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
10/11/2025	11th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29
11/12/2025	2nd	10/1	47%	93%	+0.45
19/01/2026	1st	13/8	91%	100%	+0.09
04/02/2026	4th	7/1	63%	80%	+0.17
18/02/2026	3rd	9/4	88%	82%	-0.06
20/03/2026	1st	15/8	90%	100%	+0.10
05/06/2026	5th	7/1	63%	56%	-0.08
02/07/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
28/07/2026	11th	2/1	89%	9%	-0.80