1
Tiego The First
4yo Colt · 9-4 · Draw 6
Deauville · Prix Du Cambresis Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
77%
Place Prob
53%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼3
Strength87%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.5
Today:
Class gap: +3.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Deauville | 1 | 13th | 9th | +4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deauville | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 5th | 1st | +4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | 1 | 8th | 4th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength77%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 10/08/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 05/09/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 08/03/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 76% | +0.76 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 77% | +0.22 |
| 23/08/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |