15
Mea Culpa
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Enghien · Prix Dic Williams - Attele · 1m 6f 64y
#10
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Vincennes | 2 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Vincennes | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Vincennes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Vincennes | 18 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Vincennes | 1 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1731% of fieldRange 6-17 · tight 54/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength34%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 15/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 03/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 06/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 12/09/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 22/09/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |