IvyArcIvyArc
4

Nativity Quick

3yo Filly · 0-0 · Draw 4

Enghien · Prix De Saulieu - Attele · 1m 2f 151y

#13

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Le Croise-Laroche 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m6f9y Std 07/03C?C0 @ Le Croise-Laroche 30/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m6f9y Std 030/03C?C0 @ Vincennes 14/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 014/04C?C0 @ Enghien 27/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 027/04C?C0 @ Vincennes 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m5f92y Std 05/05C?C0 @ La Capelle 02/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m5f147y Std 02/09C?4 @ Vincennes 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 1m2f178y Std 011/094projClass-projected finish: 11th of 15
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Vincennes42nd2nd0
2026-09-02La Capelle?10th10th0
2026-05-05Vincennes?5th5th0
2026-04-27Enghien?9th9th0
2026-04-14Vincennes?3rd3rd0
2026-03-30Le Croise-Laroche?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0327/0411/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 79/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/03/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
30/03/20267th9/276%25%-0.51
14/04/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16
27/04/20269th7/163%38%-0.25
05/05/20265th9/153%56%+0.03
02/09/202610th66/10%18%+0.18
11/09/20262nd11/142%92%+0.50