16
Notre Histoire
3yo Filly · 0-0 · Draw 16
Enghien · Prix De Saulieu - Attele · 1m 2f 151y
#11
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Enghien | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Pontchateau | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Pontchateau | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Caen | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 8-16 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -13.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |