3
Lilannbee
5yo Mare · 11-5
Fairyhouse · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#3
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength96%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 8 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Fairyhouse | 1 | 6th | -3th | +7 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | 1 | 6th | -3th | +8 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Tramore | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 05/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 31/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 29% | -0.48 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |