4
Myluckymaker
5yo Mare · 11-5
Fairyhouse · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
98%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼8
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: +8.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Clonmel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 61/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength74%
Delivery trend -11.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 17/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 91% | +0.05 |