5
Our Sara
5yo Mare · 11-5
Fairyhouse · Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Thurles | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.27 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 19/09/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |