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3

Grey Fable

6yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 106

Fairyhouse · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle · 2m

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat winner, including at Dundalk in May. Has shown a bit over hurdles but would be of more interest in a handicap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA59 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 59 par10/0459OR 595 @ Ayr 05/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 59 · 1m7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR 59 · 1m4f17y Yie 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 59 par18/0559OR 59BHA56 @ Dundalk 26/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 56 · 1m4f Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 56 parBHA59 @ Down Royal 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 59 · 1m4f207y Sft 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 59 par20/0659OR 59BHA59 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 59 · 1m4f65y Gd 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 par5 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m4f63y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 59 par25/075OR 595 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 59 · 1m4f23y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 59 parBHA59 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 59 · 1m4f77y Sft 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2026 · OR 59 par1/1059OR 59projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-01BellewstownBHA596th4th+2
2026-08-13Beverley52nd-2th+3
2026-07-25Chester54th0th+3
2026-07-11LimerickBHA595th3rd+2
2026-06-20Down RoyalBHA599th7th+2
2026-05-26DundalkBHA561st-2th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0426/0525/071/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 37/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength24%

Delivery trend +1.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20266th12/137%55%+0.18
05/05/20264th5/493%0%-0.93
18/05/202614th14/126%13%-0.13
26/05/20261st22/10%100%+1.00
20/06/20269th9/153%38%-0.14
11/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
25/07/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
13/08/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
01/10/20266th9/153%50%-0.03