4
State Pension
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Fairyhouse · Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com (C & G) Maiden Hurdle · 2m
#1
Rank
Odds
13/8
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Fairyhouse | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Naas | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Tipperary | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Listowel | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 06/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 87% | +0.08 |