9
Barrogstown Girl
6yo Mare · 11-1 · OR 87
Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Wexford | BHA88 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA89 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA88 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Ballinrobe | BHA66 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA69 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 4-18 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength23%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 08/08/2025 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 27% | -0.58 |
| 20/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 21/10/2025 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/05/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 22/06/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 07/08/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 31% | -0.53 |