15
Nelliestar
6yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 77
Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#16
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#16
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.2 /10 (raw 10.9)
Highest class: BHA77
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA77 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 13-17 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 12th | 200/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/01/2026 | 12th | 500/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/01/2026 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/03/2026 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |