14
Nugentstown Sue
7yo Mare · 10-8 · OR 80
Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#11
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 12.2 /10 (raw 10.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | ? | 19th | 19th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Roscommon | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Thurles | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Listowel | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Wexford | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 13-18 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 16th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11/2024 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 28/11/2024 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 08/06/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/09/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/10/2025 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/11/2025 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 31/08/2026 | 14th | 250/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 19th | 300/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |