11
Polly Poppins
6yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 82
Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#13
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA84 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Tramore | BHA84 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA86 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA89 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Tramore | BHA90 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Tramore | BHA91 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 21/09/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.02 |
| 02/10/2025 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 47% | -0.09 |
| 09/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 29/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 30/06/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 46% | -0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 18/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |