2
Tropical Twist
5yo Mare · 11-13 · OR 99
Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | BHA100 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA93 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wexford | BHA93 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA93 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Wexford | BHA93 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA94 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 1-18 · tight 21/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength63%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 43% | +0.01 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 23/07/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 18/09/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 55% | +0.12 |