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12

Victoria Kesia

5yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 82

Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful winner on the Flat at best when trained by Joseph Murphy. Third on handicap hurdle debut over this C&D in June but hasn't kicked on since, dropping away a bit too tamely for comfort fitted with a tongue tie at Downpatrick last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m11y Goo 16127/11C8C8 @ Down Royal 04/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR - · 2m1f88y Gd 159C8 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m50y Goo 15930/05C8BHA91 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 91 · 2m1f165y Gd 159 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 91 parBHA91 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 91 · 1m7f204y Gd 159 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 91 par6/0791OR 91BHA89 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 2m150y Gd 161 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 89 parBHA87 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 87 · 2m109y Goo 156 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 87 par10/0887OR 87BHA67 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 67 · 1m4f Yie 137 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 67 parBHA85 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 85 · 2m1f165y Gd 153 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 85 par18/0985OR 85projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DownpatrickBHA856th6th0
2026-08-30CorkBHA6712th12th0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA877th7th0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA898th8th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA9110th10th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA913rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1114/0610/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 10-18 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20256th100/10%67%+0.67
04/05/202616th200/10%17%+0.17
30/05/20268th250/10%50%+0.50
14/06/20263rd16/116%85%+0.69
06/07/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
23/07/20268th18/15%22%+0.17
10/08/20267th50/10%57%+0.57
30/08/202612th100/10%35%+0.35
18/09/20266th15/261%55%-0.06