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Whispering Willow

5yo Mare · 11-11 · OR 97

Fairyhouse · Racing Again October 10th Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100) · 2m

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Readily off the mark in big-field Punchestown hurdle on handicap hurdle/stable debut in May. Runner-up in handicap hurdle at Down Royal and maiden chase at Downpatrick on last 2 starts and looks sure to be thereabouts reverting to this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength12%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR - · 2m Goo 15427/09C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 151BHA86 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 154 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 86 par13/0586OR 86C0 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 2m3f100y Goo 159C0 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 1591/06C?BHA97 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 97 · 1m7f204y Gd 165 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 97 parBHA97 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 97 · 2m2f200y Gd 165 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 97 par24/0797OR 97BHA96 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 96 · 2m1f87y Goo 152 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 96 parBHA97 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 97 · 2m1f165y Gd 159 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 97 par18/0997OR 97projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18DownpatrickBHA972nd2nd0
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA962nd2nd0
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA9710th10th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA976th6th0
2026-06-01Listowel?3rd3rd0
2026-05-22Downpatrick?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0922/0524/0718/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1894% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 64/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength90%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20258th50/10%56%+0.56
11/10/20256th40/10%44%+0.44
13/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
22/05/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
01/06/20263rd4/696%60%-0.36
06/07/20266th7/282%67%-0.15
24/07/202610th14/126%40%+0.14
28/08/20262nd14/126%92%+0.66
18/09/20262nd11/486%91%+0.05