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An Lachin Beag

6yo Mare · 10-13

Fairyhouse · Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

In share of second when falling heavily at the last in maiden at Sligo on hurdling debut in early-August and stepped up on her previous efforts in bumpers when fourth of 18 at Galway last month. Place claims back over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 2m Sft 1659/11C?C0 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f53y Yie 16126/12C?C0 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR - · 2m160y Sft 1657/09C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?4th4th0
2026-08-06Sligo?0
2025-12-26Down Royal?11th11th0
2025-11-09Naas?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1126/127/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength63%

Delivery trend -26.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/20253rd40/10%82%+0.82
26/12/202511th33/10%29%+0.29
07/09/20264th9/153%82%+0.30