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Born Believing

5yo Mare · 11-7

Fairyhouse · Adare Manor Opportunity Mares Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Point winner who belied market weakness to follow up in a bumper at Cork (2m) last season. Has looked in need of stiffer test in a Grade 3 bumper and a maiden hurdle this time around, though. Any rain will be in her favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼4
Strength27%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +3.7
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 06/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m Yie 1656/04C?1 @ Punchestown 29/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m132y Yie 165 · HIGHER CLASS29/041C8 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m4f48y Goo 16128/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28Roscommon?5th5th0
2026-04-29Punchestown15th-4th+7
2026-04-06Cork?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0429/0428/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/04/20265th66/10%73%+0.73
28/09/20265th12/137%71%+0.35