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Airds Moss

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f

#2

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

53%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Promising individual. Won a bumper at Killarney in May and followed that with 2 in-frame efforts in maiden hurdles, 10¾ lengths fourth of 15 to Emerald Enigma at Navan on latest. Remains with potential.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 05/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 1685/04C?C0 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16811/05C?C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 16622/08C8C8 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 2m5f Gd 16619/09C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?4th4th0
2026-08-22Killarney?4th4th0
2026-05-11Killarney?1st1st0
2026-04-05Cork?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0411/0522/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 8-11 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -27.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/04/20262nd16/116%93%+0.78
11/05/20261st1/297%100%+0.03
22/08/20264th11/486%80%-0.06
19/09/20264th85/4089%79%-0.10