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4yo Filly · 10-9
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 6.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Down Royal | BHA69 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | BHA70 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Cork | BHA72 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-04-08 | Navan | BHA72 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2024-10-10 | Thurles | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 85% | +0.24 |
| 20/06/2024 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 10/10/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 85% | -0.01 |
| 08/04/2025 | 13th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |
| 19/04/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 11/05/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 12/06/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |