Gunnery Sergeant
6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 104
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f
#8
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 0th | +4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kilbeggan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Tramore | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairyhouse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 17/11/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 03/02/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 92% | +0.32 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.09 |
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 69% | -0.12 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |