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Its Time For A Run

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

5%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Proved a totally different proposition for current yard when winning a Downpatrick bumper in July and then stepped up on previous hurdling efforts when fourth of 20 behind Firebrand in maiden at Galway last month. Open to further progress in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 2m4f51y Goo 16527/11C8C8 @ Thurles 20/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 2m26y Yie 16620/12C8C0 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 2m2f165y Gd 16814/07C?C8 @ Galway 07/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR - · 2m160y Yie 1667/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Galway?4th4th0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?1st1st0
2025-12-20Thurles?8th8th0
2025-11-27Thurles?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1120/1214/077/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 6-6 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -21.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/11/20257th150/10%60%+0.60
20/12/20258th25/10%42%+0.42
14/07/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
07/09/20264th9/488%84%-0.04