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6

Well Bud

5yo Gelding · 11-4

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Now Maiden Hurdle · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Failed to complete on either start in points and shaped as if in need of experience on hurdling debut but been placed twice in bumpers, including when 7½ lengths second of 11 to New Grange at Listowel last time. Will stay further than 2½m and Jack Kennedy is an eye-catching jockey booking.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16811/05C?C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16816/07C?C8 @ Killarney 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR - · 2m100y Goo 15822/08C8C0 @ Listowel 23/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 16823/09C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Listowel?2nd2nd0
2026-08-22Killarney?5th5th0
2026-07-16Killarney?7th7th0
2026-05-11Killarney?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0516/0722/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20263rd11/142%80%+0.38
16/07/20267th15/261%57%-0.03
22/08/20265th66/10%73%+0.73
23/09/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53