10
Broken Ice
10yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 97
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | BHA93 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | BHA96 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | BHA98 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Punchestown | BHA99 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 75/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 03/03/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 14/07/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 69% | -0.02 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |