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Joya Del Mar

8yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 106

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won handicap hurdles at Downpatrick in May and June before twice running creditably in defeat at the same course. Ran no sort of race tried once more over fences at Ballinrobe last time and, while expected to fare better returned to hurdling, her current mark demands improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA98 @ Downpatrick 10/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 98 · 2m5f180y Yie 166 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 98 par10/1098OR 98BHA96 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 18 · OR 96 · 2m4f86y Goo 164 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 96 parBHA94 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 19 · OR 94 · 3m Goo 162 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 94 par12/0494OR 94BHA91 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 15 · OR 91 · 2m5f180y Goo 159 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 91 parBHA88 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 88 · 2m5f180y Goo 157 · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 88 par22/0588OR 88BHA98 @ Sligo 09/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 98 · 2m4f162y Yie 168 · below its mark09/06/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 98 · 2m5f180y Gd 170 · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 98 par13/0698OR 98BHA105 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 105 · 2m5f185y Gd 161 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 105 parBHA106 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 106 · 2m5f180y Gd 154 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 106 par9/08106OR 106projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Ballinrobe?0
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA1065th5th0
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA1053rd3rd0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA981st1st0
2026-06-09SligoBHA986th6th0
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA881st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/108/0513/069/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength39%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/10/20256th12/137%50%+0.13
17/03/20264th18/15%82%+0.77
12/04/20269th12/137%56%+0.19
08/05/202613th13/266%14%-0.52
22/05/20261st12/137%100%+0.63
09/06/20266th15/261%64%+0.04
13/06/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
14/07/20263rd5/174%83%+0.10
09/08/20265th8/158%56%-0.02