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Mephisto

9yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 105

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m

#9

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a hurdles hat-trick last August but has lost his way of late and made no impact in a claiming hurdle last time. Back in a tongue strap and just 1 lb above his last winning mark, but supporters will need to take plenty on trust.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Dundalk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m4f Std 140 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 57 par10/0457OR 57BHA49 @ Down Royal 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 49 · 2m Goo 131 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 49 parBHA51 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m5f Goo 133 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 51 par7/0651OR 51BHA110 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 110 · 3m116y Gd 156 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 110 parBHA111 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 111 · 2m5f185y Gd 167 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 111 par14/07111OR 111BHA110 @ Galway 29/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 110 · 2m6f Gd 166 · below its mark29/07/2026 · OR 110 parBHA109 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 109 · 2m7f210y Yie 165 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 109 par4/08109OR 109BHA106 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 106 · 2m5f180y Gd 166 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 106 parC8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 108 · 2m4f110y Goo 148 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 108 par26/08C8OR 108projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Bellewstown?6th6th0
2026-08-13TramoreBHA1066th6th0
2026-08-04RoscommonBHA10910th10th0
2026-07-29GalwayBHA11015th15th0
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA1117th7th0
2026-07-04BellewstownBHA1104th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/044/074/0826/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-13 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/04/20264th25/10%73%+0.73
29/05/20263rd10/382%85%+0.02
07/06/20266th9/276%62%-0.15
04/07/20264th16/116%79%+0.63
14/07/20267th10/147%50%+0.03
29/07/202615th28/10%22%+0.22
04/08/202610th14/126%36%+0.09
13/08/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
26/08/20266th11/271%58%-0.13