5
Midleton Rare
8yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 102
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | BHA102 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA99 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Wexford | BHA101 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Wexford | BHA102 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA102 | 0 | ||
| 2026-04-18 | Bellewstown | BHA96 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength79%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 17/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 47% | +0.31 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 33% | -0.09 |
| 23/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 94% | +0.94 |
| 19/09/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.17 |