11
Smackwater Jack
12yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 94
Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA96 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | BHA96 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA96 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kilbeggan | BHA96 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA81 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Punchestown | BHA85 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 2-12 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +2.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 12/03/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 12th | 28/1 | 0% | 48% | +0.48 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 85% | +0.27 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 04/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 03/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |