IvyArcIvyArc
3

Tippinaway

6yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 103

Fairyhouse · Winter Festival November 28th & 29th Handicap Hurdle · 3m

#5

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved when off the mark by the skin of his teeth in 13-runner maiden hurdle at Clonmel (19.9f, good) in April 2025, but has been lightly raced since and unsurprisingly shaped as if needing the run on return from 17-month absence at Navan in September.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 8.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Clonmel 13/02/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR - · 2m21y Sft 16613/02C8C8 @ Gowran Park 08/03/2025 · Pos 14th of 20 · OR - · 2m30y Sft 1668/03C8C8 @ Thurles 15/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR - · 1m7f136y Goo 16615/03C8C8 @ Clonmel 17/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 100 · 2m3f195y Goo 166 · beat its mark17/04/2025 · OR 100 par17/04C8OR 100BHA108 @ Cork 10/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 108 · 2m4f Gd 166 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 108 par10/05108OR 108BHA105 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 105 · 2m5f Gd 163 · below its mark19/09/2026 · OR 105 par19/09105OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19NavanBHA10511th11th0
2025-05-10CorkBHA1086th6th0
2025-04-17Clonmel?1st1st0
2025-03-15Thurles?4th4th0
2025-03-08Gowran Park?14th14th0
2025-02-13Clonmel?13th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/028/0315/0317/0410/0519/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 2-13 · tight 34/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength29%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/202513th150/10%29%+0.29
08/03/202514th250/10%32%+0.32
15/03/20254th125/10%80%+0.80
17/04/20251st20/10%100%+1.00
10/05/20256th4/179%62%-0.17
19/09/202611th25/10%29%+0.29